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Posted: **Thu Jan 02, 2025 9:26 am**

One of the persistent challenges in designing historically oriented wargames is balancing hit and damage results. This balance is critical; if weapons are too powerful or too weak, the game’s playability and historical accuracy can be compromised. Striking the right balance is an iterative process, often addressed during extensive playtesting.

Discussions with experienced game designers suggest that achieving this balance is one of the most crucial yet nuanced aspects of game design. As someone relatively new to historical game design, I rely heavily on analytical skills—ratios, averages, charts, and mathematical modeling—to bridge any gaps in my experience. While this approach cannot replace deep historical expertise, it provides a foundation for creating credible mechanics.

Although I am not a tactician, my military background provides some useful insights. My role in HUMINT (Human Intelligence) involved field intelligence gathering and later, data analysis—a task I did not particularly enjoy but excelled at. Additionally, my commanding officer encouraged us to use gaming as a way to explore the complexities of military intelligence. This exposure, combined with some knowledge of battlefield psychology—drawn from modern innovations in psychological tools—helps inform the design of my Napoleonic wargame, Ordre Mixte: Napoleon’s Gambit.

The first step in my design process was to research the weaponry of the Napoleonic era, including muskets, rifles, and melee weapons like swords and long knives. This involved not just reading historical accounts but also collecting firing data and examining studies that detailed the mechanics and effectiveness of these weapons. Existing data from tests carried out by the Austrians, British and Russians post 1815 include artillery and musket firing were immensely helpful

I focused heavily on musketry, as it was the dominant infantry weapon of the period. Historical literature and contemporary analyses offered formulas and data for determining musket accuracy at various ranges. After months of study and double- and triple-checking my findings, I distilled this information into usable mechanics for the game.

At 150 yards (approximately 176 paces), a battalion line of infantry firing at a rate of two rounds per minute achieved an average hit probability of 34% under optimal conditions.
For example:

A French line battalion (post-1808) with 840 men would fire 1,680 musket balls in one minute, resulting in 285 hits.
However, only 10%–12% of musket hits resulted in kills, translating to approximately 92 deaths.

This data illustrates the limitations of musket fire, even under ideal conditions. For perspective, a Russian battalion (post-1808) typically fielded 550 men. A French battalion achieving 92 kills in a single volley could inflict significant damage on a smaller force, but the numbers reveal the inefficiency of musketry as a killing tool. Out of 1,680 musket balls fired, only 285 hit their target, and even fewer caused fatal injuries.

Under actual battlefield conditions, these percentages likely dropped by half, as experts suggest. Using the same example:

A French battalion firing 1,680 musket balls under battlefield conditions would probably achieve a maximum of 143 hits and 46 kills.

This reduction reflects the chaotic nature of combat. Factors contributing to reduced accuracy include:

Lack of Rear Sights:
- Muskets lacked rear sights, making precise aiming difficult.
Shifting Aim:
- The angle of the musket often changed after each reload, particularly in the stress of battle where speed was prioritized over accuracy.
Visibility Issues:
- Gunpowder smoke rapidly obscured targets after the first volley, reducing visibility and further degrading accuracy.

The data underscores the inherent inefficiencies of Napoleonic-era firearms and highlights the importance of incorporating realistic hit and damage mechanics into historical wargames. By accurately reflecting the limitations of musketry, we can create games that are not only engaging but also historically credible. While my background in analysis and military intelligence provides a strong starting point, the reiterative nature of game design and feedback from playtesting will ultimately determine the success of Ordre Mixte: Napoleon’s Gambit.

I'm probably being conservative in my estimates based on the data of some battlefield accounts. In battles, entire battalions were left largely unscathed afterward, even after taking multiple shots from the enemy. At other times, the opposite occurred. I'll continue adjusting the values of the units in Ordre Mixte: Napoleon's Gambit until I get the best balance I can achieve.

Posted: **Thu Jan 02, 2025 8:29 pm**

We've been using a Python based application to help us in testing the firing mechanics of Ordre Mixte: Napoleon's Gambit.

I wrote the application after a bunch of learning and cursing. Once I got the app where I could use it, I gave it out to the play testers for them to try. So far, each person has run the app about 500 times. That's 20 people x 500 runs = 10,000 total runs!

That's a lot of data to track and analyze, so I'll be at it for weeks, or longer.

In the meantime, if anyone would like to try the app here is the raw code for it. Remember, Python.

The CE (1-100), MR (1-100) and the CL (1-10) can be changed to reflect different units. Such as veteran infantry or elite infantry, or to decrease range (more on that later). The existing values are what I believe a fair representation of each unit's ability, training and experience. Unit "A" is supposed to represent a French Line Infantry, and unit "B", a Russian Line Infantry. It's not important but I noted it as aa curiosity. The range is set to 150 yards (the current CE value). A range decrease would be handled as a modifier (Example:100 yards +10CE, 50 yards +20CE)

I think I have pretty much everything well defined in the code. If not let me know and I'll see what I can do to fix it.

Code: Select all

import random

# Define units
unit_A = {"CE": 45, "MR": 50, "FL": 5, "CL": 5, "hits": 0}
unit_B = {"CE": 42, "MR": 47, "FL": 5, "CL": 5, "hits": 0}

# Define firing function
def fire_at_target(attacker, defender):
    roll = random.randint(1, 100)
    difference = attacker["CE"] - roll
    hits = max(0, difference // 10)  # Calculate hits
    defender["hits"] += hits  # Apply hits to defender
    return hits

# Define break check with auto-break condition
def check_break(unit):
    # Automatic break if hits are double the Cohesion Level (CL)
    if unit["hits"] >= 2 * unit["CL"]:
        print(f"Unit automatically breaks (Hits: {unit['hits']} >= 2 x CL: {unit['CL']})!")
        return True  # Unit breaks
    # Regular morale check if hits exceed CL
    if unit["hits"] > unit["CL"]:
        morale_roll = random.randint(1, 100)
        print(f"Morale Roll: {morale_roll} vs MR: {unit['MR']}")
        if morale_roll > unit["MR"]:
            print(f"Unit fails morale check (Roll: {morale_roll} > MR: {unit['MR']})!")
            return True  # Unit breaks
    return False  # Unit holds

# Combat simulation function with turn tracking
def simulate_combat(unit_A, unit_B):
    print("Combat started!")
    turn = 1  # Initialize turn counter
    while True:
        elapsed_time = turn * 12  # Calculate elapsed time in minutes
        print(f"\n--- Turn {turn} (Elapsed Time: {elapsed_time} minutes) ---")
        
        # Unit A fires at Unit B
        hits_A = fire_at_target(unit_A, unit_B)
        print(f"Unit A hits Unit B for {hits_A} damage (Total hits: {unit_B['hits']})")
        
        # Check if Unit B breaks
        if check_break(unit_B):
            print("Unit B is removed from play!")
            break
        
        # Unit B fires at Unit A
        hits_B = fire_at_target(unit_B, unit_A)
        print(f"Unit B hits Unit A for {hits_B} damage (Total hits: {unit_A['hits']})")
        
        # Check if Unit A breaks
        if check_break(unit_A):
            print("Unit A is removed from play!")
            break
        
        turn += 1  # Increment turn counter

# Run the combat simulation
simulate_combat(unit_A, unit_B)

1. Save it to someplace on your computer.
2. Run it.
3. Run it as much as you want.
4. Have fun!

Here are some sample results:
===============================

Combat started!

--- Turn 1 (Elapsed Time: 12 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 0)
Unit B hits Unit A for 0 damage (Total hits: 0)

--- Turn 2 (Elapsed Time: 24 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 0)
Unit B hits Unit A for 0 damage (Total hits: 0)

--- Turn 3 (Elapsed Time: 36 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 3 damage (Total hits: 3)
Unit B hits Unit A for 0 damage (Total hits: 0)

--- Turn 4 (Elapsed Time: 48 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 3)
Unit B hits Unit A for 1 damage (Total hits: 1)

--- Turn 5 (Elapsed Time: 60 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 3)
Unit B hits Unit A for 3 damage (Total hits: 4)

--- Turn 6 (Elapsed Time: 72 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 3 damage (Total hits: 6)
Morale Roll: 29 vs MR: 47
Unit B hits Unit A for 0 damage (Total hits: 4)

--- Turn 7 (Elapsed Time: 84 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 6)
Morale Roll: 82 vs MR: 47
Unit fails morale check (Roll: 82 > MR: 47)!
Unit B is removed from play!

==========================
Combat started!

--- Turn 1 (Elapsed Time: 12 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 0)
Unit B hits Unit A for 0 damage (Total hits: 0)

--- Turn 2 (Elapsed Time: 24 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 0)
Unit B hits Unit A for 0 damage (Total hits: 0)

--- Turn 3 (Elapsed Time: 36 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 2 damage (Total hits: 2)
Unit B hits Unit A for 0 damage (Total hits: 0)

--- Turn 4 (Elapsed Time: 48 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 2)
Unit B hits Unit A for 1 damage (Total hits: 1)

--- Turn 5 (Elapsed Time: 60 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 2 damage (Total hits: 4)
Unit B hits Unit A for 0 damage (Total hits: 1)

--- Turn 6 (Elapsed Time: 72 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 4)
Unit B hits Unit A for 3 damage (Total hits: 4)

--- Turn 7 (Elapsed Time: 84 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 4)
Unit B hits Unit A for 0 damage (Total hits: 4)

--- Turn 8 (Elapsed Time: 96 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 1 damage (Total hits: 5)
Unit B hits Unit A for 2 damage (Total hits: 6)
Morale Roll: 86 vs MR: 50
Unit fails morale check (Roll: 86 > MR: 50)!
Unit A is removed from play!

==========================
Combat started!

--- Turn 1 (Elapsed Time: 12 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 1 damage (Total hits: 1)
Unit B hits Unit A for 2 damage (Total hits: 2)

--- Turn 2 (Elapsed Time: 24 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 1)
Unit B hits Unit A for 0 damage (Total hits: 2)

--- Turn 3 (Elapsed Time: 36 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 1)
Unit B hits Unit A for 0 damage (Total hits: 2)

--- Turn 4 (Elapsed Time: 48 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 1 damage (Total hits: 2)
Unit B hits Unit A for 0 damage (Total hits: 2)

--- Turn 5 (Elapsed Time: 60 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 2)
Unit B hits Unit A for 0 damage (Total hits: 2)

--- Turn 6 (Elapsed Time: 72 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 2)
Unit B hits Unit A for 1 damage (Total hits: 3)

--- Turn 7 (Elapsed Time: 84 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 2)
Unit B hits Unit A for 4 damage (Total hits: 7)
Morale Roll: 69 vs MR: 50
Unit fails morale check (Roll: 69 > MR: 50)!
Unit A is removed from play!

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 5:41 pm**

In emails, I got asked, by a few people, if the Python app for testing firing results will be part of the game.

I'm answering them here.

No. The app will not be part of the table-top game. The app's only purpose is to test the results of firing by various units and at 3 different distances.

One test went 12 turns, or 144 minutes. That's 2hr 24min. The range is 150 yards, what I had the app set to originally. The size of the units are battalions. The formation is line.

You could get nitty gritty with the units and thus their values, if the desire is there. As an example:
The French battalion is 880 men strong. If it were 1000 men, their CE would be CE 50. but it has 120 men less than that, or 12% less. Applying a 12% loss of fire power is 6 points, and 6 from 50 would equate to CE44.

The Russians have more of a drop. 1000 men is CE50. At 550 that's 450 men less, or 45% less. or 12.5 point loss. Here, we always round down. 50 -12 = 38. That's CE:38. Using these adjusted values the results might be skewed some in practice. Let's find out.

I ran the app 10 times (below are the first 2 runs), with an average of 7.7 turns (92.4 minutes) with the shortest battle at 4 turns, and the longest battle was 12 turns, and unit "A" lost 4 battles, while unit "B" lost 6 battles. No mods were used. It wasn't too badly skewed, in fact, the results might even be historically realistic.

I had fun running the battles. Yeah, I know. I need a life!

Combat Started

--- Turn 1 (Elapsed Time: 12 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 2 damage (Total hits: 2)
Unit B hits Unit A for 2 damage (Total hits: 2)

--- Turn 2 (Elapsed Time: 24 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 2)
Unit B hits Unit A for 2 damage (Total hits: 4)

--- Turn 3 (Elapsed Time: 36 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 2)
Unit B hits Unit A for 1 damage (Total hits: 5)

--- Turn 4 (Elapsed Time: 48 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 2)
Unit B hits Unit A for 0 damage (Total hits: 5)

--- Turn 5 (Elapsed Time: 60 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 2)
Unit B hits Unit A for 0 damage (Total hits: 5)

--- Turn 6 (Elapsed Time: 72 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 2)
Unit B hits Unit A for 0 damage (Total hits: 5)

--- Turn 7 (Elapsed Time: 84 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 2)
Unit B hits Unit A for 0 damage (Total hits: 5)

--- Turn 8 (Elapsed Time: 96 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 2)
Unit B hits Unit A for 0 damage (Total hits: 5)

--- Turn 9 (Elapsed Time: 108 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 2)
Unit B hits Unit A for 0 damage (Total hits: 5)

--- Turn 10 (Elapsed Time: 120 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 2)
Unit B hits Unit A for 1 damage (Total hits: 6)
Morale Roll: 94 vs MR: 50
Unit fails morale check (Roll: 94 > MR: 50)!
Unit A is removed from play!

Combat started!

--- Turn 1 (Elapsed Time: 12 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 0)
Unit B hits Unit A for 0 damage (Total hits: 0)

--- Turn 2 (Elapsed Time: 24 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 0)
Unit B hits Unit A for 0 damage (Total hits: 0)

--- Turn 3 (Elapsed Time: 36 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 0)
Unit B hits Unit A for 0 damage (Total hits: 0)

--- Turn 4 (Elapsed Time: 48 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 0 damage (Total hits: 0)
Unit B hits Unit A for 0 damage (Total hits: 0)

--- Turn 5 (Elapsed Time: 60 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 1 damage (Total hits: 1)
Unit B hits Unit A for 2 damage (Total hits: 2)

--- Turn 6 (Elapsed Time: 72 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 4 damage (Total hits: 5)
Unit B hits Unit A for 0 damage (Total hits: 2)

--- Turn 7 (Elapsed Time: 84 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 3 damage (Total hits: 8)
Morale Roll: 44 vs MR: 47
Unit B hits Unit A for 3 damage (Total hits: 5)

--- Turn 8 (Elapsed Time: 96 minutes) ---
Unit A hits Unit B for 2 damage (Total hits: 10)
Unit automatically breaks (Hits: 10 >= 2 x CL: 5)!
Unit B is removed from play!

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